(5/22 update: Hutch Carpenter nails the trend in an earlier post on his blog: “Enterprise 2.0 and the Trough of Disillusionment“.)
Yuri Alkin (@yurial) posted a spot-on analysis of the current state of Enterprise 2.0 at the FastForward Blog. As I read Yuri’s post it dawned on me that his assessment is a dead ringer for the 2nd and 3rd phases of The Gartner Group’s Hype Cycles. Although he didn’t specifically say it in his blog, Yuri’s analysis leads to the obvious conclusion that… enterprise 2.0 has transitioned past the Peak of Inflated Expectations and into the Trough of Disillusionment. I’m guessing that right now E2.0 is somewhere between the dotted lines below:

“More likely than not, you have your own example of a “now what?” story. As in “So we’ve deployed internal blogs and wikis. Now what?”
Yep. Lived it and breathed it. In fact, I get a chance to tell that story as a panelist at the E2.0 conference next month.
“E2.0 is still primarily a vendor space, dominated by ISVs selling software to businesses who haven’t really asked for it. It is simply not a demand-driven market. By contrast, just think of CRM or payroll software. You don’t need to convince businesses they need that.
For the most part I agree with Yuri on this one. I wish it was different. I see how the culturally transformative potential of e2.0 in the enterprise can lead to huge efficiencies in transfer and flow of knowledge. It will become a demand-driven market someday, when the tools evolve (and organizations evolve along with them) to the point where you can demonstrate and quantify the can’t-live-without value of frictionless knowledge flow that they enable.
“…in a Benjamin Button fashion, many customers – often encouraged by enthusiastic sellers – think about E2.0 backwards, starting with tools instead of concentrating on specific business problems.“
This quote gives me yet another opportunity to pitch the P.O.S.T method described by Josh Bernoff and Charlene Li in the groundswell. The “T” stands for Technology, and it’s last in the sequence for good reason. You gotta start with People, Objectives, and Strategy first. Try not to let an IT driven viewpoint be the tail that wags the dog. You might have to fight a few more battles. But in the long run I think you will be glad (as in measurable success) that you did.
“Real gold is not in the technologies of today. It’s not even in applying the best of breed E2.0 tools correctly. It’s in solutions of tomorrow, designed to solve hard business problems through people-connecting technologies.“
Here Yuri clearly alludes to the last two phases of the Hype Cycle: the “Slope of Enlightment”, and the “Plateau of Productivity”.
One additional observation. Yuri works for Microsoft, and of course they have offerings in the E2.0 space too. In the near term, He didn’t paint a very pretty picture of the market for their E2.0 offerings either. But maybe thats not a bad thing for MS. I recently sat down with a MOSS developer to get the technical overview of MOSS features, and what functions it provides that make it an E2.0 platform. After working with a whole spectrum of E2.0 oriented tools while at IBM, I have to say that what I saw of MOSS is not (yet) very impressive. But my point is not to evaluate MOSS as an E2.0 platform. My point is this: I think that the timing of the E2.0 Hype Cycle is working in Microsoft’s favor. MS’s E2.0 offerings will only improve. They could end up hitting the slope of enlightment at just the right time.





